Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Special Coverage: The 2012 Presidential Election

President Obama has been elected to another term in the White House. FiveThirtyEight followed developments throughout the night.
2:31 A.M. Not a Big Win for Obama, but a Broad One
President Obama was re-elected, relying on a coalition of voters that was broader than it was deep.
Democrats maintained an edge in party identification, allowing Mr. Obama to win despite losing independent voters by several points. Forty-five percent of those who voted for Mr. Obama were racial minorities, a record number, and he made gains among Hispanic and Asian-American voters.
Mr. Obama’s win carried forth into most of the swing states. Of the 10 states that the campaigns contested most vigorously, he may lose only North Carolina, while winning battlegrounds in the four major geographic regions of the country.
Mr. Obama is also likely to win the popular vote, perhaps by two to three percentage points, once votes from California, Oregon and Washington are fully counted.
While the House of Representatives was called early in the night for Republicans, Democrats performed well in races for the United States Senate. They will control 52 to 56 seats when the Senate meets in January, depending on the outcome of the uncalled races in Nevada, Montana and North Dakota, and whether former Gov. Angus King of Maine, who won his seat as an independent on Tuesday, caucuses with them.
The election also marked a success for gay and lesbian voters. Tammy Baldwin, the Democratic candidate in Wisconsin, won her race and became the first openly gay or lesbian person elected to the United States Senate. Ballot initiatives to allow same-sex marriage were adopted in Maine and Maryland, while others in Minnesota and Washington State are too close to call as further ballots are counted.
Thank you for joining FiveThirtyEight’s coverage of the election campaign. There’s a lot more to unpack in the coming days, but first, we’re going to get some sleep and grab a beer.
— Nate Silver

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