I was airborne until late, so no chance until now to weigh in on the Fed’s new move. And now I really need to get some sleep to fight off this cold! So just a few points:
1. It’s good to see the Fed moving, finally.
2. It certainly sounds as if Bernanke is reacting to the Woodford critique, which argues that quantitative easing is mainly effective through its effect on expectations. While the policy does take the form of purchases of unconventional assets — mortgage-backed securities — Bernanke is not relying on portfolio balance effects alone; instead, he’s trying to move expectations by declaring that the Fed will continue to ease for some timeafter the economy has begun to recover:
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens.
In effect, the Fed seems to be trying to “credibly promise to be irresponsible”, which is what I advocated way back when in this kind of situation.
3. That’s all good. However, it’s kind of vague. No clear target, whether nominal GDP or some kind of inflation/unemployment mix. Put it this way: you could imagine a future Fed chairman tightening policy in line with the same Taylor rule that seemed to describe policy before the crisis — a rule that suggests that interest rates wouldn’t start to go up until unemployment was below, say, 7 percent — and still being able to claim that he had not violated any promise Bernanke made. In other words, it’s not totally clear that we really do have a shift in future policy. And since the whole point is to move expectations, leaving this kind of wiggle room is not a good thing.
To paraphrase an old joke: what do you get when you cross a Godfather with a central banker? Someone who makes you an offer you can’t understand.
4. Romney is talking destructive nonsense.
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