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What’s at Stake in the New Hampshire PrimarySkip to CommentsWhat’s at Stake in the New Hampshire Primary
Here are the Democratic candidates competing today.
PLYMOUTH, N.H. — Iowa, for all its problems counting its caucus results, also failed in its traditional role of winnowing the presidential field. For the first time since 2004, nobody dropped out after Iowa, sending the full field of Democratic candidates from that state on to New Hampshire. Now Granite State voters will be left with the responsibility of informing candidates which of them won’t go on — if only they’ll listen.
Public polling during the week since Iowa’s caucuses show a firm Top 2 of Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind. The two of them finished in a virtual tie for first place in Iowa. Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota are all bunched well behind.
New Hampshire State Polling Average Over Time
30
%
26%
Sanders
25
20
20%
Buttigieg
15
14%
Biden
13%
Warren
10
8%
Klobuchar
5
4%
Gabbard
4%
Yang
3%
Steyer
0
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
2019
2020
30
%
25
26%
Sanders
20
20%
Buttigieg
15
14%
Biden
13%
Warren
10
8%
Klobuchar
5
4%
Gabbard
4%
Yang
3%
Steyer
0
July
Jan.
2019
2020
The momentum game, key to the early nominating contests, has Mr. Buttigieg and Ms. Klobuchar on the rise, but New Hampshire voters are famously finicky and late-deciding — remember Hillary Clinton surging ahead of Barack Obama in 2008.
Whatever happens here will set the tone for what’s next: Nevada’s caucuses on Feb. 22, South Carolina’s primary a week later and then Super Tuesday on March 3, the delegate motherlode when California, Texas and 12 other states vote.
Waiting for whoever emerges from the first four states will be Michael Bloomberg, the former New York City mayor who has already aired $115 million worth of TV ads in the Super Tuesday states — more than the rest of the field combined has spent on TV ads in Iowa and New Hampshire. If there’s not a clear front-runner by then, Mr. Bloomberg could force the party into a delegate slog that could last all the way to the Democratic National Convention in July.
When first polls closeTuesday, Feb. 11, 7 p.m. Eastern time.
Delegates at stake24
ResultsLive results will be posted on nytimes.com beginning at 7 p.m.
Here’s how important New Hampshire is to each candidate.
Bernie Sanders
He won 60 percent of the vote in New Hampshire four years ago, beating Hillary Clinton by 22 percentage points. Anything less than first place would be a major disappointment — but he can probably win this time with half his 2016 support due to the crowded field.
Mr. Sanders is targeting New Hampshire’s young voters and the working class. He’s stressing his support for legalizing marijuana and closed the campaign with a concert from The Strokes. A victory Tuesday could cement him as the progressive standard bearer as the Democratic field narrows.
Days spent in New Hampshire: 30
Money spent on TV ads in New Hampshire: $5.32 million
New Hampshire polling average: 26%
National polling average: 24%
Delegates earned so far: 12
More on the candidate: Read the full guide or watch a video interview.
Pete Buttigieg
He shocked everyone but his own campaign by finishing in a virtual tie with Mr. Sanders in Iowa and has been inching up in tracking polls of New Hampshire during the last week. Another win, or a close second, could shift support to him in Nevada and South Carolina, where voters of color have been slow to warm to him. A disappointing finish that stalls his momentum could be extremely damaging, given how poorly he’s done among voters of color.
It’s been quite the ride for Mr. Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Ind. His entire candidacy was premised on strong showings in Iowa and New Hampshire. If he follows up Iowa with a Top 2 finish Tuesday, a campaign that began as an extreme longshot a year ago may morph into the establishment’s choice if Mr. Biden fades.
Days spent in New Hampshire: 40
Money spent on TV ads in New Hampshire: $3.62 million
New Hampshire polling average: 20%
National polling average: 7%
Delegates earned so far: 13
More on the candidate: Read the full guide or watch a video interview.
Joseph R. Biden Jr.
Mr. Biden flopped in Iowa — a “gut punch,” he said — and predicted a poor New Hampshire finish during Friday’s debate. The latest polling suggests his prognostication is likely to come true, but it’s also telling that the establishment choice, and national front-runner, is setting expectations so blatantly.
Like in Iowa, Mr. Biden has drawn smaller crowds than his leading opponents. His events have an air of obligation rather than excitement. After a staff shakeup he’s become more aggressive in attacking candidates ahead of him in the polls. The biggest question for Mr. Biden now is this: Does he have sufficient resources and momentum to get to South Carolina and the Super Tuesday states, where he’s counting on strength with black voters to resuscitate his campaign?
Days spent in New Hampshire: 25
Money spent on TV ads in New Hampshire: $305,629
New Hampshire polling average: 14%
National polling average: 27%
Delegates earned so far: 6
More on the candidate: Read the full guide.
Elizabeth Warren
No candidate was harmed more by the Iowa caucus fiasco than Ms. Warren. A third-place Iowa finish should have brought her renewed energy. Instead, with the focus on the chaotic counting and with a somewhat muted performance in Friday’s debate, Ms. Warren has whatever the opposite of momentum is.
Finishing behind Mr. Sanders again — in a state where most voters know her from Boston news outlets — would make it difficult to argue Ms. Warren can cobble together enough left-leaning Democrats to claim the nomination. A total collapse, perhaps behind Ms. Klobuchar and Mr. Biden, would leave little justification to continue her campaign.
Days spent in New Hampshire: 39
Money spent on TV ads in New Hampshire: $1.50 million
New Hampshire polling average: 13%
National polling average: 14%
Delegates earned so far: 8
More on the candidate: Read the full guide or watch a video interview.
Amy Klobuchar
Ms. Klobuchar was extremely proud of her debate performance. She turned her argument that she knows the working people of the country into a mini-stump speech and a central element of her final TV ad in the state. Her aides and surrogates are trumpeting “Klomentum,” citing her swelling crowds and polls that show her creeping into third place.
Her campaign is on an upward trajectory, peaking at just the right time. More than any other candidate, New Hampshire is do or die for Ms. Klobuchar. A third-place finish delivers her the rationale to carry on, with the argument that she’s the strongest woman left in the field and the moderate choice for disaffected Biden supporters. Placing fourth or fifth could mean that even her best is not quite good enough.
Days spent in New Hampshire: 38
Money spent on TV ads in New Hampshire: $1.54 million
New Hampshire polling average: 8%
National polling average: 5%
Delegates earned so far: 1
More on the candidate: Read the full guide or watch a video interview.
Andrew Yang
There was a lot of hype for Andrew Yang heading into Iowa. He did a 17-day bus tour, blanketed the airwaves with TV ads and appeared to be a candidate with a devoted following who could post a surprise showing in the caucuses. It didn’t happen — he finished with 1 percent of the state’s delegate equivalents.
New Hampshire is another shot. The state should be friendlier to Mr. Yang than Iowa — voters are flintier and tend to be more receptive to anti-establishment messages like Mr. Yang’s. He’s raised enough money to carry on to Nevada, South Carolina and Super Tuesday, but at some point he’s got to start winning some votes and earning himself delegates. A second poor showing could mean the end of his campaign.
Days spent in New Hampshire: 62
Money spent on TV ads in New Hampshire: $3.37 million
New Hampshire polling average: 4%
National polling average: 4%
Delegates earned so far: 0
More on the candidate: Read the full guide or watch a video interview.
Tom Steyer
The billionaire is stumping around New Hampshire, but his campaign at this point is focused on South Carolina. Tom Steyer made several explicit appeals to black voters in Friday’s debate — New Hampshire is 1.7 percent black.
South Carolina, on the other hand, has a Democratic primary electorate that is majority black. Mr. Biden has been strongest in that state, but if he fades, Mr. Steyer, whose advertising dominance has pushed him into the mid-teens in public polling there, has a shot to reorder the race with a strong showing. And since he is largely self-financing his campaign, nobody can tell him when to quit.
Days spent in New Hampshire: 25
Money spent on TV ads in New Hampshire: $17.82 million
New Hampshire polling average: 3%
National polling average: 2%
Delegates earned so far: 0
More on the candidate: Read the full guide or watch a video interview.
Michael Bennet
It’s hard to say why Senator Michael Bennet is still in the race. After Iowa Democrats tuned him out, he relocated most of his campaign to New Hampshire without much evidence he’s doing better. His high point in the final week was a press conference with James Carville, the former Bill Clinton strategist who thought so much of the occasion that he wore his best Louisiana State University T-shirt.
Mr. Bennet would count anything above 2 percent in New Hampshire as a success. If Mr. Sanders doesn’t win, Mr. Bennet will probably claim some credit for that. It’s hard to imagine he carries on to Nevada and South Carolina, but every other white male candidate in the low single digits has dropped out of the race already, so perhaps Mr. Bennet can still envision a lane to the White House.
Days spent in New Hampshire: 60
Money spent on TV ads in New Hampshire: $53,150
New Hampshire polling average: 1%
National polling average: <1%
Delegates earned so far: 0
More on the candidate: Read the full guide.
Deval Patrick
Deval Patrick’s candidacy illustrates the peril of jumping into the race so late without the resources of a billionaire. He skipped Iowa and has stumped around New Hampshire to polite receptions, but hasn’t raised enough money or received enough attention in the press to put any sort of message in front of enough voters to be a viable threat here.
He might carry on to South Carolina and argue that, as the last black candidate running, he has a shot of doing well there. But if Mr. Patrick is known to any primary voters it ought to be in New Hampshire, from the time when he served as governor of neighboring Massachusetts. Tuesday will be his first time on a ballot anywhere since 2010, and the results will show whether a candidate can come out of political hibernation and be viable mounting a 10-week presidential campaign.
Days spent in New Hampshire: 32
Money spent on TV ads in New Hampshire: $107,005
New Hampshire polling average: 1%
National polling average: <1%
Delegates earned so far: 0
More on the candidate: Read the full guide.
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