President Trump has bristled at new polling showing him trailing Joe Biden by double digits nationally and even in some key swing states. His allies have called the polls into question by suggesting that they over-sample Democrats.

But a new poll in Texas reinforces just how dire the situation could be for Trump — even if the voters who turn out are more favorable to him.

Quinnipiac University just released a new poll of Texas. Like its predecessors, it shows an unusually tight race in a state that the GOP has counted on for decades as a given in its electoral college math. The poll shows Biden at 45 percent in the Lone Star State vs. 44 percent for Trump — a tight race, to be sure, that could break either way.

If it were to break to Biden, it would in all likelihood be game over for Trump. But even if that doesn’t happen, it says something about the fast-approaching campaign that is difficult to ignore.

What are we talking about?

It’s actually pretty simple: Texas voters say they like Trump better, but they’re still very much flirting with going for Biden.

The poll shows Trump’s approval and favorable ratings in Texas are, as you might expect in a red state, better than they are nationally. Trump’s approval and favorable ratings aren’t great, at 45 percent and 44 percent, respectively. And more voters disapprove of and dislike Trump — 51 percent and 49 percent, respectively. But given that his average national approval is around 42 percent, it suggests that he’s in better shape there.

At the same time, Trump is locked in a tight race in the poll despite being better-liked than Biden. The same poll shows just 38 percent of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Biden, while 49 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

Being 11 points underwater in such a state would usually be a death sentence for a politician — particularly a Democrat in a red state — but Biden’s support on the ballot test actually rises by seven points despite it. While just 38 percent have a favorable opinion of him, 45 percent say they would vote for him over Trump.

A very plausible reason for Biden’s overperformance is the coronavirus outbreak, which has hit Texas harder than most states. Trump’s approval on his response mirrors his overall approval — 45 percent to 52 percent — but voters say 48 to 45 that Biden would do a better job on the issue, a bump of 10 percentage points for Biden from his 38 percent favorable rating. Perhaps voters see Biden as a more competent leader, even if they don’t like him personally. If that’s the case, it spells trouble for Trump in other hard-hit states in the South and Southwest such as Georgia, Florida and Arizona.

The poll is the latest to show that Trump struggles mightily to gain support beyond voters who say they like or approve of him. His support in 2020 polls has long been very closely tied to his approval rating. Occasionally, he’s lost even some people who say they approve of him. And without building support beyond the low 40s, he would need to rely upon a hefty performance from third-party candidates, who thus far don’t seem terribly significant.

While in 2016 Trump was elected thanks to the many voters who disliked both him and Hillary Clinton, that split has been turned on its head this time, with many more voters who say they dislike both Trump and Biden saying they’ll go for the Democrat. (And that’s to say nothing of Biden’s generally superior image ratings outside Texas.)

The Texas poll might be the most remarkable manifestation of that — the idea that there is a very close race in a red state that actually likes and approves of the incumbent GOP president more than his Democratic challenger.

In 2016, a “change” election accrued to Trump’s benefit. But in 2020, that change is his Democratic opponent, who appears to be threatening to change a state that has been so vital for the GOP in presidential races. But even if that doesn’t happen, the state of the race there points to the significant and thus-far-unchanged limitations of Trump’s 2020 candidacy.