It’s
an impressive travel schedule, but it may reflect the biggest challenge
facing him right now: It’s still not clear exactly where and how he
would win.
Hillary Clinton has a consistent and clear advantage in states worth at least 270 electoral votes, even if the race has undoubtedly tightened over the last few weeks. But even that understates the challenge facing Mr. Trump’s campaign: It’s not at all obvious where he has his best chance of breaking through, making it harder for him to concentrate his efforts over the last days of the campaign.
This is not to say that Mr. Trump can’t win. The polls could be off across the board.
But even if he wins Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, Utah, North Carolina, Florida and New Hampshire, he's still short of a victory.
He's
not assured to win any of those states, to be clear — although he's a
clear favorite in Iowa and Utah at this point. He has trailed in more
live interview polls of North Carolina and Florida than he has led,
although the national race has tightened since many were taken.
But
he would still need to win one of the following states: Pennsylvania,
Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado, Virginia, or perhaps New Mexico
or Minnesota.
Of all of these states, the only one where Mr. Trump has really been close in the polls is Nevada.
But Nevada is also the state where we know the most about the results because of early voting, and it hasn't brought good news for Mr. Trump.
Clinton’s Path of Least Resistance
Even if Donald Trump wins Arizona, Utah, New Hampshire,
Iowa, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina, he’ll still need to win one of
these blue states to win the presidency.
Trump 263
Clinton 275
Democrats
have largely replicated the turnout from 2012 (when President Obama
ultimately won the state by about seven points), thanks in no small part
to a strong turnout among Hispanic voters. Many analysts, like the
Nevada politics guru Jon Ralston, have concluded that Mr. Trump has
basically lost the state already.
This
might seem difficult to reconcile with the polling, but Nevada is a
state where pollsters have underestimated Democrats in the past. One
theory is that the polls are not very good at capturing the most
Democratic-leaning Hispanic voters. And indeed, the polls showing Mr.
Trump ahead in the state have shown a smaller lead for Mrs. Clinton
among nonwhite voters than seems plausible, particularly given his
rhetoric against Hispanic immigrants.
Perhaps
Mr. Trump will mount a huge comeback in Nevada on Election Day. Or
maybe Democrats are much weaker among registered Democrats or
unaffiliated voters than most analysts believe.
But
if Mrs. Clinton does indeed have a big advantage in Nevada, then his
chances start looking very bleak: He's at a disadvantage in the polls of
all of the other states that could put him over the top.
What's
more, it's not really clear where he has his best chance — something
reflected in Mr. Trump's unfocused pre-election push.
Pennsylvania
seemed like Mr. Trump's best option earlier in the year, but he hasn't
led a live interview poll there since the summer. The final nonpartisan
live interview polls there show Mrs. Clinton ahead by a comfortable
margin of four to six points. The state will probably be close, but it's
quite clear that she has the edge.
Wisconsin
is another state that seemed as if it could be promising for Mr. Trump.
It has a large population of white working-class Democrats, just as
Iowa does, and Mr. Trump is running well in Iowa. But he has struggled
among Republican-leaning voters in the Milwaukee suburbs.
Interactive Feature: 2016 Election Forecast: Who Will Be President?
The race could tighten if these voters return to his side, but he hasn't led a live interview poll there all year.
Michigan
could be a more interesting option for Mr. Trump. It was the most
Democratic of all of these states in the 2012 election, and he hasn’t
led a poll there all year either. But recent polls have shown a
relatively tight race there.
Mrs.
Clinton visited the state on Friday, and President Obama will visit on
Sunday and Monday, and Mrs. Clinton will make another stop on Monday, so
clearly the Clinton campaign thinks there's some softness there. That
said, if the election comes down to whether Mr. Trump can score an upset
in Michigan, he's in a lot of trouble. It seems hard to imagine he
could carry the state without also carrying Pennsylvania.
Colorado
is a notch tougher than any of those states. The demographics and
polling are both tough for Mr. Trump. It has one of the best-educated
populations in the country, along with a large Hispanic population.
There
was one recent poll that showed a tied race in Colorado, but most have
shown Mrs. Clinton with a lead. Like Nevada, Colorado is also a state
where the Democrats have outperformed their final poll numbers in every
presidential election since 2004. The early vote numbers are strong for
the Democrats there as well.
Virginia
is like Colorado: Neither polls nor demographics seem promising for Mr.
Trump. Ultimately, the fact that the race is close in North Carolina is
a very strong indicator that Mrs. Clinton has a big lead in Virginia.
Then
there are states like Minnesota and New Mexico. The polls have not
shown an especially tight race, and Mrs. Clinton is not campaigning or
airing advertisements there. Mr. Trump's team has held out some hope of
winning, but these states seem especially unlikely to decide the
election.
Again,
the polls are close enough that the possibility of a victory for Mr.
Trump is still quite real. But it's just not clear exactly how or where
he would break through. It doesn't seem that the Trump campaign knows
either.
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