Saturday, October 1, 2016

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Ariz. Colo. Fla. Ga. Ill. Ind. Iowa Mich. Mo. N.C. N.H. Nev. Ohio Pa. Wis.


Who Will Be President?

By JOSH KATZ

Hillary Clinton has a76% chance of winning the presidency.
Last updated Saturday, October 1 at 11:18 AM ET

CHANCE OF WINNING


76%

Hillary Clinton

24%

Donald J. Trump
The Upshot’s elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on the latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a 44-yard field goal.
From now until Election Day, we’ll update our estimates with each new poll, as well as collect the ratings of other news organizations. You can chart different paths to victory below. Here’s how our estimates have changed over time:
JuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovember0%20%40%60%80%100%0%20%40%60%80%100%Trump24%Clinton76%Election DayOctober 1

Where the Race Has Shifted

To understand what is driving the national trend, it’s worth taking a look at the states where the winning probabilities have changed most over the last two weeks:

5862
Clinton's chances
4048
Clinton's chances
in Ohio
8183
Clinton's chances
in Michigan
4546
Trump's chances
in North Carolina
8895
Clinton's chances
in Rhode Island
5459
Trump's chances
in Iowa
8991
Clinton's chances
in Delaware
5964
Clinton's chances
in Florida
7878
Clinton's chances
in Colorado
8188
Clinton's chances
in Minnesota
9599
Trump's chances
in Nebraska
8187
Clinton's chances
in New Hampshire
7277
Trump's chances
in Georgia
8994
Clinton's chances
in Virginia
1011
Trump's chances
in Maine
1617
Trump's chances
in Pennsylvania

State-by-State Probabilities

To forecast each party’s chance of winning the presidency, our model calculates win probabilities for each state. In addition to the latest state polls, our forecast incorporates a state’s past election results and national polling.
The table below shows our model’s estimate for Democrats and Republicans in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. We have put the states into five groups based on their voting history relative to the nation since 2004.
Our estimates in states that tend to vote …

Much more Democratic

Dem.Rep.
D.C.
>99%
<1%
Calif.
>99%
<1%
Md.
>99%
<1%
N.Y.
>99%
<1%
Hawaii
>99%
<1%
Mass.
>99%
<1%
Vt.
>99%
<1%
R.I.
95%
5%

Somewhat more Democratic

Dem.Rep.
Ill.
98%
2%
N.J.
97%
3%
Wash.
96%
4%
Conn.
96%
4%
Ore.
95%
5%
Del.
91%
9%
Me.
89%
11%
N.M.
86%
14%
Mich.
83%
17%

Like the country as a whole

Dem.Rep.
Va.
94%
6%
Minn.
88%
12%
N.H.
87%
13%
Pa.
83%
17%
Colo.
78%
22%
Wis.
77%
23%
Fla.
64%
36%
Nev.
62%
38%
Ohio
48%
52%
Iowa
41%
59%

Somewhat more Republican

Dem.Rep.
N.C.
54%
46%
Ariz.
26%
74%
Ga.
23%
77%
Mo.
8%
92%
Ind.
5%
95%

Much more Republican

Dem.Rep.
S.C.
14%
86%
Alaska
11%
89%
Miss.
9%
91%
Tex.
8%
92%
Mont.
5%
95%
Ark.
5%
95%
Utah
4%
96%
S.D.
4%
96%
Kan.
3%
97%
La.
1%
99%
Ky.
1%
99%
Tenn.
1%
99%
Idaho
1%
99%
N.D.
1%
99%
Neb.
1%
99%
W.Va.
<1%
>99%
Ala.
<1%
>99%
Okla.
<1%
>99%
Wyo.
<1%
>99%

How Other Forecasts Compare

The New York Times is one of many news organizations to publish election ratings or forecasts. Some, like FiveThirtyEight or thePrinceton Election Consortium, use statistical models, as The Times does; others, like the Cook Political Report, rely on reporting and knowledgeable experts’ opinions. PredictWise uses information from betting markets.
We compile and standardize these ratings every day into one scoreboard for comparison. First, every organization’s estimate for who will win the presidency:
NYT538DKPWPECCookRoth.1Sabato
Win
76% Dem.
68% Dem.
70% Dem.
78% Dem.
85% Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Note: The 538 model shown is its default (polls-only) forecast.Qualitative ratings reflect the rating for the state in the middle of each organization’s forecast, weighted by electoral votes.
Second, each organization’s state-by-state ratings. Viewed together, the differences between the models become much clearer.
StateE.V.NYT538DKPWPECCookRoth.1Sabato
D.C.3
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
218 electoral votes
From 19 likely Democratic states
California55
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Maryland10
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
New York29
>99% Dem.
99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Hawaii4
>99% Dem.
99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Massachusetts11
>99% Dem.
99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Vermont3
>99% Dem.
96% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Illinois20
98% Dem.
96% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
New Jersey14
97% Dem.
92% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Washington12
96% Dem.
94% Dem.
>99% Dem.
99% Dem.
99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Connecticut7
96% Dem.
94% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Oregon7
95% Dem.
92% Dem.
>99% Dem.
99% Dem.
95% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Rhode Island4
95% Dem.
88% Dem.
98% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Virginia13
94% Dem.
83% Dem.
94% Dem.
93% Dem.
94% Dem.
Likely Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Delaware3
91% Dem.
86% Dem.
99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Maine4
89% Dem.
76% Dem.
93% Dem.
94% Dem.
88% Dem.
Likely Dem.
Solid Dem.
Likely Dem.
Minnesota10
88% Dem.
79% Dem.
94% Dem.
96% Dem.
95% Dem.
Likely Dem.
Likely Dem.
Likely Dem.
New Hampshire4
87% Dem.
71% Dem.
84% Dem.
92% Dem.
90% Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Leaning Dem.
New Mexico5
86% Dem.
86% Dem.
94% Dem.
96% Dem.
98% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Michigan16
83% Dem.
78% Dem.
91% Dem.
95% Dem.
83% Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Likely Dem.
Leaning Dem.
156 electoral votes
From 11 competitive states
Pennsylvania20
83% Dem.
74% Dem.
82% Dem.
90% Dem.
59% Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Colorado9
78% Dem.
69% Dem.
70% Dem.
89% Dem.
64% Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Wisconsin10
77% Dem.
78% Dem.
88% Dem.
93% Dem.
68% Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Leaning Dem.
Florida29
64% Dem.
57% Dem.
52% Rep.
70% Dem.
68% Dem.
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Nevada6
62% Dem.
57% Dem.
74% Rep.
73% Dem.
59% Dem.
Tossup
Leaning Dem.
Tossup
North Carolina15
54% Dem.
51% Dem.
70% Rep.
61% Dem.
68% Dem.
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Ohio18
52% Rep.
54% Rep.
79% Rep.
54% Dem.
59% Rep.
Tossup
Tossup
Leaning Rep.
Iowa6
59% Rep.
60% Rep.
91% Rep.
55% Rep.
86% Rep.
Leaning Rep.
Tossup
Leaning Rep.
Arizona11
74% Rep.
69% Rep.
94% Rep.
85% Rep.
92% Rep.
Leaning Rep.
Leaning Rep.
Likely Rep.
Georgia16
77% Rep.
78% Rep.
94% Rep.
90% Rep.
83% Rep.
Leaning Rep.
Leaning Rep.
Likely Rep.
South Carolina9
86% Rep.
91% Rep.
>99% Rep.
97% Rep.
95% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
164 electoral votes
From 21 likely Republican states
Alaska3
89% Rep.
83% Rep.
>99% Rep.
99% Rep.
99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Mississippi6
91% Rep.
97% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Texas38
92% Rep.
92% Rep.
>99% Rep.
98% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Missouri10
92% Rep.
88% Rep.
>99% Rep.
95% Rep.
98% Rep.
Likely Rep.
Likely Rep.
Solid Rep.
Montana3
95% Rep.
87% Rep.
>99% Rep.
93% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Arkansas6
95% Rep.
98% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Indiana11
95% Rep.
94% Rep.
>99% Rep.
96% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Likely Rep.
Likely Rep.
Solid Rep.
Utah6
96% Rep.
98% Rep.
>99% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Likely Rep.
Likely Rep.
Solid Rep.
South Dakota3
96% Rep.
89% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Kansas6
97% Rep.
92% Rep.
>99% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Louisiana8
99% Rep.
97% Rep.
>99% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Kentucky8
99% Rep.
98% Rep.
>99% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Tennessee11
99% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Idaho4
99% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
North Dakota3
99% Rep.
94% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Nebraska5
99% Rep.
98% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
West Virginia5
>99% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Alabama9
>99% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Oklahoma7
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Wyoming3
>99% Rep.
98% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
1 Rothenberg & Gonzales ratings are converted from a nine-category scale to a seven-category scale to make comparisons easier.
Solid
Dem.
Likely
Dem.
Leaning
Dem.
Tossup
Leaning
Rep.
Likely
Rep.
Solid
Rep.

No Debate That Hillary Clinton’s Polling Numbers Are Improving
By NATE COHN September 30
So Just Who Are These Undecided Voters?
By LYNN VAVRECK September 30
Google Searches for Voter Registration Have Surged in Hispanic Areas
By NATE COHN September 29
Why Are the Different Presidential Forecasts So Far Apart?
By JOSH KATZ September 29
Questions to Consider if Your Trump-Clinton Vote Doesn’t Really Count
By TONI MONKOVIC September 28

Which Outcomes Are Most Likely

Some combinations of electoral votes are much more common than others. The chart below shows the estimated likelihood of each outcome.
0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%100200300400500Most likely outcome341 electoral votesMost likely outcome341 electoral votes270 electoral votes needed
Electoral votes for Hillary Clinton →

1,024 Paths to the White House

The interactive diagram below illustrates Mr. Trump’s challenging path to the presidency. Here, we let you control the outcome of the nine states that have voted most like the nation since 2004, plus North Carolina, which has emerged in the past decade as a more competitive state. We then assume that Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton win the other states in which they are favored. Above all, this diagram illustrates how important Florida and Pennsylvania are to both candidates.
Select a winner in the states below to see either candidate's paths to victory.
64% Dem.
Fla.
83% Dem.
Pa.
52% Rep.
Ohio
54% Dem.
N.C.
94% Dem.
Va.
77% Dem.
Wis.
78% Dem.
Colo.
59% Rep.
Iowa
62% Dem.
Nev.
87% Dem.
N.H.
Clinton has 693 ways to win
68% of paths

16 ties
2% of paths

Trump has 315 ways to win
31% of paths
DRFloridaDRPennsylvaniaDROhioDRNorth CarolinaDRVirginiaDRWisconsinDRColoradoDRIowaDRNevadaDRNew HampshireIf Clinton wins Florida…If Trump wins Florida…With 10 states undecided:With these selections,
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