Sunday, August 21, 2016

Think It’s Hot Now? Just Wait


By HEIDI CULLEN
July wasn’t just hot — it was the hottest month ever recorded, according to NASA. And this year is likely to be the hottest year on record.
Fourteen of the 15 hottest years have occurred since 2000, as heat waves have become more frequent, more intense and longer lasting. A study in the journal Nature Climate Change last year found that three of every four daily heat extremes can be tied to global warming.
This map provides a glimpse of our future if nothing is done to slow climate change. By the end of the century, the number of 100-degree days will skyrocket, making working or playing outdoors unbearable, and sometimes deadly. The effects on our health, air quality, food and water supplies will get only worse if we don’t drastically cut greenhouse gas emissions right away.

1991-2010 average

Days above 100°F
0-5
5-10
10-25
25-50
50+
Seattle
Wash.
Maine
Mont.
N.D.
Vt.
Minn.
Ore.
N.H.
Minneapolis
Idaho
Mass.
N.Y.
Wis.
S.D.
Mich.
Conn.
Wyo.
Detroit
New York
San
Francisco
Iowa
Pa.
Chicago
N.J.
Neb.
Ohio
Md.
Nev.
Utah
Del.
Denver
Ind.
Ill.
Mo.
W.Va.
Calif.
Va.
St. Louis
Kan.
Colo.
Ky.
N.C.
Tenn.
Ariz.
Ark.
Los
Angeles
Okla.
Atlanta
N.M.
S.C.
Phoenix
92 days
Miss.
Ga.
Ala.
Dallas
15
La.
Texas
New Orleans
Houston
Tampa
Fla.
Miami

By 2060

Days above 100°F
0-5
5-10
10-25
25-50
50+
Seattle
Walla Walla
23
Wash.
Mont.
N.D.
Maine
Hardin
26
Ore.
Minn.
Vt.
Idaho
Medford
18
Minneapolis
N.H.
Boise
27
N.Y.
Pierre
27
Mass.
Wis.
Mich.
S.D.
New York
Detroit
Wyo.
Nev.
Iowa
San
Francisco
N.J.
Pa.
Chicago
8
Neb.
Ind.
Ohio
Md.
Denver
10
Del.
Calif.
Utah
Las Vegas
112
Mo.
Wichita
38
Ill.
W.Va.
Fredericksburg
16
Kan.
Fresno
72
Colo.
St. Louis
18
Ky.
Va.
N.M.
N.C.
Tenn.
Ariz.
Los
Angeles
S.C.
Okla.
Albuquerque
32
Columbia
21
Phoenix
132
Ark.
Atlanta
10
Ala.
Dallas
55
La.
Ga.
Miss.
Pecos
101
Houston
New Orleans
Texas
Fla.
Tampa
Miami

By 2100

Days above 100°F
0-5
5-10
10-25
25-50
50+
Seattle
Walla Walla
49
Wash.
Mont.
Maine
Hardin
51
Ore.
N.D.
Vt.
Minn.
Idaho
Medford
40
N.H.
N.Y.
Minneapolis
19
Pierre
53
Boise
55
Mich.
New York
16
Boston
9
S.D.
Wyo.
Detroit
22
Wis.
Neb.
Pa.
Iowa
McCook
67
Ohio
Chicago
26
Utah
Nev.
Philadelphia
28
Calif.
Md.
Ind.
Moab
87
Las Vegas
138
Denver
41
Mo.
W.Va.
Ill.
Fredericksburg
52
Kan.
Wichita
74
Ky.
Fresno
101
Colo.
St. Louis
50
Va.
N.C.
Memphis
64
Tenn.
Lawton
100
N.M.
Los
Angeles
S.C.
Ariz.
Albuquerque
73
Selma
74
Columbia
62
Okla.
Phoenix
163
Ark.
Atlanta
39
Texas
Miss.
Dallas
98
Ga.
Ala.
La.
Pecos
142
Houston
62
New Orleans
39
Tampa
22
Fla.
Miami

Number of Days Over 95° F Annually

BOSTON
MINNEAPOLIS
NEW YORK CITY
CHICAGO
54
42
42
28
23
15
15
9
1
0
2
1
’91-’10
2060
2100
’91-’10
2060
2100
’91-’10
2060
2100
’91-’10
2060
2100
133
WASHINGTON
KANSAS CITY
ATLANTA
DALLAS
97
94
90
74
50
47
44
32
9
7
4
’91-’10
2060
2100
’91-’10
2060
2100
’91-’10
2060
2100
’91-’10
2060
2100
By 2100, the Dallas area is projected to be above 95 degrees for more than four months a year.
These calculations by Climate Central are based on projections by the World Climate Research Programme that assume that greenhouse gas emission trends will continue unabated through 2100. Daily maximum values for the average of the years 1991 to 2010 are based on meteorological data compiled by Ed Maurer at Santa Clara University.
Heidi Cullen is the chief scientist for Climate Central, an environmental research group, and the author of “The Weather of the Future.”

Graphics by Tim Wallace and Bill Marsh
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